About The Army Promotion Point Dashboard

My Mission

My mission is to provide soldiers with information, real-time insights into Army promotion point trends, and tools to better plan their careers and advancement goals.

About The Author

I am a Staff Sergeant with five years of Active Duty service, now working as a civilian Data Scientist and serving in an East Coast National Guard unit. I have completed my Master of Science in Data Analytics and Policy at Johns Hopkins University, concentrating in statistical analysis. I sat on this website for about a year before I got promoted and currently run this website as a passion project.

I have always believed in two things: relentless self-development and lifting others as you climb. After wrestling with Excel every month to predict my own promotion points, I realized I could build a tool that spares every soldier that hassle. I hope the sum of my developing efforts helps you not only achieve your goals but also generates your own itch, encouraging you to look around, find the gaps in your organization, and build solutions that lift not only yourself, but those around you as well.

My Philosophy

To me, the Army can feel like a cornfield. You know where you want to go, but the rows are dense, visibility is limited, and the path is often obscured. Most soldiers spend a good portion of their careers trying to navigate systems that are opaque, either because that is how they were intended or because those in charge of the system lack the foresight to produce valuable tools.

This dashboard started as a way to better understand my own promotion path after spending too much personal time wrestling with spreadsheets to predict my own trajectory and plan how many points I would need to promote. Over time, this personal investment of time grew into something I hoped would help other soldiers as analytical and obsessive as me. My goal is not only to reach the destination myself, but to cut a clearer trail for the soldiers coming behind me.

I believe one of the best things you can do in any enterprise is identify friction points and build solutions that make life easier for others. If this project helps even a handful of soldiers better plan their careers, reduce uncertainty, or take more ownership over their advancement, then every second spent building it was worth it.

If you take anything from this site, take two things. One: use the insights provided to gauge and improve your standing for promotion. Two: identify problems and create solutions that help not only yourself, but those around you as well.

Cheers. And go get your promotions.

Contact Me

All feedback, suggestions, and input are welcome. Reach out at [email protected].

Methodology

This dashboard is designed to be useful without pretending to be magic. The charts are descriptive and predictive tools built from public monthly promotion point data. They should support judgment, not replace it. Plain-language key: cutoff (C means the Army's required promotion points), your points (P means the points you type into the dashboard), month (i or t means one month in the selected range), and n (the number of months being counted).

Data Sourcing

All data is sourced from the monthly AR 600-8-19 Promotion Point Cutoff publications. A scraper pulled every report since August 2023, which is when secondary and primary points were unified. The PDFs are converted to text, parsed into CSVs, and compiled into the master dataset used by the dashboard. The master CSV auto-updates on the 29th each month. If the Army changes the publication format, discrepancies may appear until the parsing logic is updated.

Promotion Points Over Time

Cutoff score (C_i means the Army's required point score in month i), your points (P means the score you enter), and chart range (y means the vertical scale) are kept inside the valid Army point range. The chart zooms within 24 to 798 so a normal MOS trend still fills the window instead of getting flattened by impossible point entries. If your point line is far above or below the visible cutoff pattern, the chart labels that instead of stretching the whole window.

Hyper-Variance 798 Exclusion

A 798 month (C_i = 798) usually means nobody in that MOS/rank/component was promoted that month. The Exclude 798 Months option removes those rows before the website calculates anything. That can help when you are asking, "What happens in months where this MOS is actually moving?" It can hurt when those no-promotion months are part of the real story, because removing them may make the odds look cleaner or easier than reality.

OLS Cutoff Prediction

Time (t_i means the month number in the selected range), baseline (beta0 means where the line starts), slope (beta1 means how fast the cutoff is moving each month), and error (e_i means how far the real month missed the line) are used in Ordinary Least Squares linear regression. In plain English, this draws the best straight line through the old cutoffs and extends it one month forward. It cannot predict sudden Army policy, manning, school seat, or mission changes.

Your Historical Chance

Win_i (a pass/fail mark for month i), P (your entered points), C_i (that month's cutoff), and n (months counted) answer one simple question: if you had these points back then, how many selected months would you have cleared? It is a historical comparison over the selected range, not a promise for next month.

Your Volatility-Adjusted Outlook

Delta_i (the size of the jump from one month to the next), q90 (a high-jump cutoff where only the biggest 10 percent of jumps are above it), and VolatilityShare (the share of months with unusually large movement) tell the dashboard how jumpy the MOS has been. A jumpy MOS gets a lower outlook because old wins are less dependable.

Your Next-Month Readiness

Latest cutoff (C_t means the newest selected cutoff), recent median (RecentMedian means the middle value of the last three cutoffs), forecast (F_next means the estimated next cutoff), scale (s means recent miss distance and cutoff movement), and Phi (the normal curve used to turn distance into a percentage) make the third dial. I tested heavier machine learning models against recent holdout months, but simple local momentum was clearer and performed better for this short monthly MOS data.

Promotion Pressure Index

Cutoff pressure (are required points rising?), selection pressure (is the promotion rate falling?), eligible pressure (are more soldiers competing?), and volatility pressure (are points jumping around?) are combined into one 0 to 100 score. It is not your personal promotion probability. It is a pressure reading for the MOS environment: higher means the MOS looks tighter or less predictable, while lower means the recent environment looks easier to plan around. This is an intelligence signal, not an official Army decision forecast.

Confidence Intervals

Confidence interval (CI means the model's estimated upper and lower range), standard error (SE means typical prediction miss), and z (the multiplier for the confidence level you choose) show how wide the next-cutoff estimate should be. A higher CI is more cautious and wider. A lower CI is tighter but easier to miss.

Competitiveness Score

Promotions (soldiers selected that month) and eligibles (soldiers who were in the pool for that MOS/rank/component) are divided to show the share selected. In the original dashboard wording, a higher score means the month was less competitive because a larger share of eligible soldiers were picked up.

Historical Soldier Selection

Not promoted (eligible soldiers minus promoted soldiers) and promoted (soldiers selected) are stacked together so you can see the size of the pool, not just the cutoff number. This helps show whether a cutoff changed because the Army selected many soldiers, few soldiers, or nobody.

Known Limitations

DoD networks can restrict browser storage or write permissions. On restricted systems, features such as saved dark mode, typing promotion points, or checking chart options may behave differently. The site is not affiliated with the Department of Defense.

Demo

Support The Project

This dashboard is a working project built to give soldiers clearer promotion-point intelligence without making them wrestle with spreadsheets every month. If it saves you time, helps you plan, or gives your formation a better way to talk about points, you can support continued development.

Advanced MOS Report

Support the project and generate a custom advanced MOS report. The report uses the full promotion-point database internally, but it does not publish the raw dataset. You get the analysis, charts, and interpretation.

Your Advanced Report

Verifying payment and preparing your download.

Privacy Policy

Last updated: May 17, 2026

This Privacy Policy explains what information may be processed when you use this website, why it may be processed, and what choices you have. The goal is clarity. This site exists to display Army promotion point trend visuals, supporting tables, and optional advanced MOS reports. You do not need to create an account to use the dashboard.

Important note: this site is hosted and delivered using third party services including Cloudflare, Railway, and Stripe. Like most websites, those services may process limited technical, payment, and diagnostic data to deliver pages, protect against abuse, process payments, generate reports, and keep the service reliable.

Who We Are

Site name: Army Promotion Point Dashboard

Website: https://promotionpointdashboard.com/

Contact email: [email protected]

Interpretation and Definitions

Interpretation

Words with initial capitalization have meanings defined below. These definitions apply whether the terms appear in singular or plural.

Definitions

For the purposes of this Privacy Policy:

• Company, We, Us, Our: refers to the operator of Army Promotion Point Dashboard.
• Country: United States of America.
• Device: any device that can access the Service, such as a computer, phone, or tablet.
• Personal Data: information that relates to an identified or identifiable individual.
• Report Inputs: the settings you enter to generate an advanced MOS report, such as component, rank, MOS, date range, current promotion points, and planning horizon.
• Service: the website and related pages served at promotionpointdashboard.com.
• Service Provider: a third party that processes data to deliver hosting, security, payments, advertising, analytics, or related infrastructure.
• Usage Data: technical data that may be collected automatically when you access the Service.
• You: the individual accessing the Service, or the entity on whose behalf the Service is accessed.

Summary of What We Collect

This site does not provide user accounts and does not ask you to register. The main dashboard can be used without entering your name, email, phone number, mailing address, or payment information. If you enter promotion points or other dashboard settings, those values are used to calculate and display the dashboard results in your browser and through the website server.

If you support the project or generate a paid advanced report, payment is handled by Stripe. The advanced report flow uses only the limited report settings needed to verify payment and generate the PDF, such as component, rank, MOS, date range, current promotion points, and planning horizon.

Dashboard and report inputs

Dashboard filters and report inputs may include component, rank, MOS, date range, confidence interval, current promotion points, and planning horizon. These inputs are used to generate charts, statistics, downloadable reports, and payment-session metadata for paid reports. Please do not enter information that you do not want processed for those purposes.

The paid report uses the master promotion-point dataset internally to generate analysis, but the report does not publish the raw row-level dataset. Reports are generated dynamically from your selected inputs and the available dataset.

Payments and Stripe

Payments are processed by Stripe. When you use Stripe Checkout or a Stripe-hosted support link, you may provide information directly to Stripe, such as your email address, payment details, billing information, transaction amount, payment status, and related fraud-prevention information. Stripe may process that information under its own privacy policy and legal obligations.

Army Promotion Point Dashboard does not receive or store your full credit card number, debit card number, card security code, or bank account credentials. Stripe handles the payment page, card entry, authorization, receipts, fraud controls, and payout flow. The website may receive limited payment confirmation information and Stripe session metadata so it can verify that a report was paid for and generate the correct PDF.

Usage Data (technical data)

Usage Data may include information such as your IP address, browser type, device type, operating system, pages visited, timestamps, and basic diagnostic data. This data is commonly used to deliver pages, prevent abuse, and troubleshoot reliability issues.

Cookies and similar technologies

Cookies are small files stored on your device. Similar technologies include local storage, pixels, tags, web beacons, request headers, and device identifiers. This website may use these technologies for security protections, load balancing, performance optimization, theme preferences, payment processing, advertising, and abuse prevention.

The dashboard may use browser storage for convenience features, such as remembering light or dark mode. Service Providers may use cookies or similar technologies to provide security, hosting, payment, advertising, or diagnostic services.

You can control cookies through your browser settings. Disabling cookies may affect security protections, payment checkout, report download verification, or other website features.

Advertising and Google AdSense

This website may display advertising, including Google-served ads through Google AdSense, now or in the future. If Google-served ads are displayed, Google and its advertising partners may use cookies or similar technologies to serve ads, personalize ads where permitted, limit how often you see an ad, measure ad performance, detect fraud and abuse, and improve advertising systems.

Third party vendors, including Google, may use cookies to serve ads based on your prior visits to this website or other websites. Google's use of advertising cookies enables Google and its partners to serve ads based on your visit to this site and other sites on the internet.

You can opt out of personalized advertising through Google's ad settings at Google My Ad Center. You may also learn more about third party advertising choices at aboutads.info. Users in certain regions, including the EEA, UK, and Switzerland, may be shown additional consent choices where required by law.

How We Use Information

Information that may be processed by the Service or its providers is used for the following purposes:

• To provide the Service: serve pages and site functionality.
• To calculate dashboard results: generate charts, probability estimates, report previews, and related analytics from your selected filters and point inputs.
• To process support payments and paid reports: send users to Stripe Checkout or Stripe-hosted support pages, verify paid status, and generate downloadable PDF reports.
• To maintain reliability and security: detect abuse, mitigate attacks, and keep the site available.
• To troubleshoot and improve performance: identify errors, reduce downtime, and improve load times.
• To display advertising: serve, personalize where permitted, measure, and protect ads if advertising is enabled.
• To comply with legal obligations: respond to lawful requests when required.

Legal Bases for Processing

Depending on your location, the legal bases for processing may include legitimate interests (running a secure and reliable website), performance of a transaction or requested service (processing paid reports and support payments), your consent (where required for certain cookies or advertising technologies), and compliance with legal obligations.

Service Providers

We use third party services to host and deliver the website. These providers may process technical data to provide their services.

• Cloudflare: content delivery network and security services that help protect the site and improve performance.
• Railway: application hosting platform used to run the dashboard server and related services.
• Stripe: payment processor used for advanced report checkout, payment verification, and optional project support payments.
• Google AdSense: advertising service that may be used to serve and measure ads if advertising is enabled on the site.

You should also review the privacy policies of these providers for details about their processing. Provider policies control how they handle data as independent companies. Stripe's privacy policy is available at stripe.com/privacy. Google's advertising technology information is available at policies.google.com/technologies/ads.

Sharing of Information

We do not sell your personal information for money. Information may be shared in the following limited situations:

• With Service Providers: to operate hosting, security, payment, report generation, advertising, and site delivery infrastructure.
• With Stripe: to process payments, verify report purchases, issue receipts, handle disputes, prevent fraud, and support payment-related legal obligations.
• With advertising providers: to serve, measure, and protect ads if ads are enabled.
• For legal compliance: to comply with applicable law, regulation, or lawful requests.
• To protect rights and safety: to investigate or prevent misuse, fraud, or security incidents.

No User Accounts and No Card Storage

This website does not provide user accounts. We do not intentionally maintain a user profile system, membership database, or login history tied to individual users. We also do not store full payment card numbers or card security codes on our servers.

Data Retention

We do not maintain user accounts on this site. Technical logs, if retained by infrastructure providers, are generally kept only as long as needed for security, diagnostics, and operational purposes. Stripe may retain transaction records according to its own legal, tax, fraud-prevention, and financial compliance obligations.

Paid report settings may remain in Stripe session metadata or operational logs for as long as needed to verify payment, regenerate the report, troubleshoot a purchase, handle support requests, comply with law, or maintain business records. The website does not intentionally publish or sell those report inputs.

Your Privacy Rights

Depending on where you live, you may have rights relating to your personal information, including the right to access, correct, delete, or restrict certain processing. Because we do not operate user accounts, most requests will relate to provider logs, which may be controlled by the providers.

You may also have rights to opt out of certain targeted advertising or sale/share activity under applicable law. You can use browser controls, Google ad settings, and the third party opt-out tools linked above to manage advertising preferences.

If you have a privacy request, contact [email protected] and describe your request, the approximate time of your visit, and whether the request relates to dashboard usage, a paid report, a Stripe payment, or advertising. We will respond as reasonably and promptly as we can.

International Transfers

Your information may be processed in locations where our Service Providers operate. Data protection laws may differ by jurisdiction.

Security

We take reasonable steps to keep the site secure, including the use of reputable hosting, security, and payment providers. Payment card entry is handled by Stripe rather than by this website. No method of transmission or storage is perfectly secure, and we cannot guarantee absolute security.

Children's Privacy

This Service is not intended for children under 13. We do not knowingly collect personal information from children under 13. The site is intended for general informational use by people researching Army promotion point trends.

Links to Other Websites

The Service may link to other websites that are not operated by us. We are not responsible for the content or privacy practices of those sites.

Changes to This Privacy Policy

We may update this Privacy Policy from time to time. Updates are effective when posted on this page. If changes are significant, we will make a reasonable effort to highlight them on the site.

Contact Us

If you have any questions about this Privacy Policy, email [email protected].